Note on the Estimation of the Influence of the Unfavorable Natural Factors on the Marine Pipelines Construction

Kovchin I. S., Stepanuk A. I.

The paper is devoted to the development of a methodical approach to risk assessment in the construction and subsequent operation of the offshore part of pipelines associated with the manifestation of natural and other factors. The research methodology includes analysis of data on the environment and climate of the regions of the construction of the offshore part of known pipelines, taking into account the technology of their construction and the influence of natural factors on the possibility of occurrence of trouble situations. The influence of unfavorable events on the construction process is described in terms of the average annual probability of hazardous phenomena and the delay in the process of pipe laying using the critical limitations of the operation of pipelaying vessels of various classes. Situations that lead to downtime construction with an inaccurate forecast of storm conditions are considered. Based on the developed approach, a calculation of the probabilities for estimating the factors during the laying of pipelines along the proposed routes in the Black Sea and possible losses of time from changes in weather conditions was performed.

Download original text