Quantitative Estimates of the Tsunami Hazard and Maps of the Tsunami Zoning

Kaistrenko V. M.

The information concerning the most essential tsunami events on the Russian Pacific coast is given. Methods of the quantitative estimates of the tsunami hazard and its historical developing are described. A short sketch on the logic chain hazard-vulnerability-risk is given. The parameters describing tsunami hazard are considered. A short survey on the quatitative estimates of the fatalities and damages is given. Probabilistic model of the Poissonian type for the tsunami sequence on the Far Eastern coast of the Russia is created. Some general problems related to the probabilistic approach to tsunami hazard estimation are also considered. The parameters of this model were determined and their physical meaning is explained. Correct method for the quantitative evaluation of these parameters using observational data of historical tsunamis is created. Process of the tsunami run-up is considered especially. For one-dimentional run-up, some relationships between the maximal (minimal) delevelling and maximal current velocity and horizontal coordinate are created. The problem of the run-up accompanied by wave breaking is described shortly. On the basement of the probabilistic model, some analytical formulae for the quantitative estimates of the tsunami hazard are proposed. Some variants of parameters for tsunami hazard maps are considered. An example of the tsunami hazard map in terms of h100 for the coast of the Southern Kuril Islands is given.

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