Belokon A. Yu., Fomin V.V.

The results of numerical modeling of the propagation of tsunami waves from several seismic sources of the Azov-Black Sea basin, which represent a potential hazard for the Kerch Strait, are presented. At the first stage, for the entire Azov-Black Sea basin, the evolution of four model sources of tsunami generation was simulated — two sources closest to the strait in the Black and Azov Seas, a remote Black Sea source, and also a source similar to the one that caused the Yalta earthquake on the 12th September of 1927. The initial conditions were set in the form of an elliptical rise in sea level, the parameters of the ellipse were found according to empirical formulas corresponding to an earthquake with a magnitude of 7. For these foci, tide gauges were analyzed at the entrance to the strait from the Black and Azov Seas. It was revealed that at the entrance to the strait, the Black Sea tsunamis have shorter periods than the Azov Sea ones. At the second stage, the penetration of tsunami waves into the Kerch Strait was modeled on a high-resolution grid. Model data from the first stage were used as boundary conditions at the liquid boundaries of the strait. The identified areas of maximum sea level rise are located along the coast of the strait when waves propagate from both the Black and Azov Seas. It is shown that Tuzla Island has a blocking effect on the propagation of tsunami in the strait.

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